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  1. #1
    Level 6: Prominent Opinion CaptSweatpants deserves your respect CaptSweatpants's Avatar
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    Reserve Odds Question

    Has anyone posted the odds on reserves... LIke what are the odds my opponent with a 3 or 4 card set is holding. ?
    Damn... lost another stripe

  2. #2
    Forum Moderator and All Knowing God. Cardinalsrule is a glorious beacon of light Cardinalsrule is a glorious beacon of light Cardinalsrule is a glorious beacon of light Cardinalsrule's Avatar
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    Odds of having a set with 3 cards are 1 in 3, odds with 4 cards are 2 in 3.
    "And if you don't give up and don't give in, you may just be OK" ~ Mike and the Mechanics "The Living Years"

  3. #3
    Level 9: Highly Acclaimed Authority on the Subject riskyone commands your respect riskyone commands your respect riskyone's Avatar
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    The final of Pizza Party #4 needs to be reset. It was set up as a fivers but it needs to be singles. There are 5 of us left. Which crime fighter will make this happen and the balance of all things this universe will be leveled back to where they were and the world will be saved.

  4. #4
    Level 9: Highly Acclaimed Authority on the Subject riskyone commands your respect riskyone commands your respect riskyone's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by riskyone View Post
    The final of Pizza Party #4 needs to be reset. It was set up as a fivers but it needs to be singles. There are 5 of us left. Which crime fighter will make this happen and the balance of all things this universe will be leveled back to where they were and the world will be saved.
    I see that I put this where the discussion was about odds. Sorry. Sure could use help with it though.

  5. #5
    Level 6: Prominent Opinion haWD96lz is on a distinguished road haWD96lz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinalsrule View Post
    Odds of having a set with 3 cards are 1 in 3, odds with 4 cards are 2 in 3.
    That assumes he cashes with 3 cards. The odds of him having a set by 4 cards is 7 in 9. So the true odds of having a set with 4 cards is between 2 in 3 and 7 in 9 depending on if you think they would have cashed with 3 or not.

  6. #6
    Forum Moderator and All Knowing God. Cardinalsrule is a glorious beacon of light Cardinalsrule is a glorious beacon of light Cardinalsrule is a glorious beacon of light Cardinalsrule's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by haWD96lz View Post
    That assumes he cashes with 3 cards. The odds of him having a set by 4 cards is 7 in 9. So the true odds of having a set with 4 cards is between 2 in 3 and 7 in 9 depending on if you think they would have cashed with 3 or not.
    without putting too fine a point on it, the odds I quoted do assume not having a set with 3. If you don't have a set with 3 cards, 2 of the 3 possibilities on the 4th card will give you a set. Obviously if you already have a set with 3 cards your 'odds' of having a set with 4 is increased.
    "And if you don't give up and don't give in, you may just be OK" ~ Mike and the Mechanics "The Living Years"

  7. #7
    Level 6: Prominent Opinion haWD96lz is on a distinguished road haWD96lz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinalsrule View Post
    without putting too fine a point on it, the odds I quoted do assume not having a set with 3. If you don't have a set with 3 cards, 2 of the 3 possibilities on the 4th card will give you a set. Obviously if you already have a set with 3 cards your 'odds' of having a set with 4 is increased.
    The reason I answered as I did was because he asked about his opponent not himself. Since you only have partial information there is uncertainty that depends on play style, game situation and reserves value. For example in a flat rate its likely they will cash as soon as possible, but in escalate with lots of people its unlikely they will early on.

  8. #8
    Level 6: Prominent Opinion CaptSweatpants deserves your respect CaptSweatpants's Avatar
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    Thanks to both the mathletes for the well reasoned response. I always figure the odds are 50/50. They have the set .. or they don't. ;o )
    Damn... lost another stripe

  9. #9
    Make My Day... NewSheriffInTown commands your respect NewSheriffInTown commands your respect NewSheriffInTown's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptSweatpants View Post
    I always figure the odds are 50/50. They have the set .. or they don't. ;o )
    Schrodinger's cat

  10. #10
    Level 2: Familiar Sound LotsOFFLuck is on a distinguished road LotsOFFLuck's Avatar
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    Irwin has a set

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