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Thread: Fix the dice!

  1. #31
    Level 6: Prominent Opinion engineerairborne is on a distinguished road engineerairborne's Avatar
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    I have had my bad runs, and I have had my good runs with these dice. What I can say is with the dice the way they are, I believe that this promotes better strategy. Think of it this way. We are replicating war, and war is unpredictable. Having dice that are not predictable fits this mantra. It forces you to play a more strategic game because those with experience know that they can't just wait to attack when the statistics say they have the advantage.

    For Example using an online Risk Dice calculator http://diceroll.stritar.net/risk.html 100 v 100 the Attacker should win 81.65 percent of the time. And for a lot of the time this holds true. But the unpredictability of it, makes you play more strategy.

    As long as every player has to live with the same unpredictability I am good with the Dice not working perfect. Yes it makes for some frustrating games. But when starting a Nukes game and going 6 v 2 is not a simple 80% plus probability of taking that first tert, it makes you play more strategy.

  2. #32
    Level 11: Commanding General of Everything. Don't ask, just listen. I'm at 11. Sebrim commands your respect Sebrim commands your respect Sebrim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by miquel View Post
    I remember that there were some post about the dice statistic... did some searching and found this:
    https://www.majorcommand.com/forums/...3&d=1490411358

    This clearly shows that there is some real problem with the dice! I did some trials with Matlab randi function constrained to have uniform distribution within the dice range. All the trials having 1000 rolls ended having having average of ~3.5 (which it should be). In the image the average of 5000 rolls is 3.00 => BAD!
    Hi miquel! What you found, if I remember right, was a visualisation of what the statistics tracker in MajCom might look like in the future, and the poster obviously mistook the dice average for his example numbers, so that doesn't prove anything at all

  3. #33
    Level 5: Notable Commentator miquel is on a distinguished road miquel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by engineerairborne View Post
    I have had my bad runs, and I have had my good runs with these dice. What I can say is with the dice the way they are, I believe that this promotes better strategy. Think of it this way. We are replicating war, and war is unpredictable. Having dice that are not predictable fits this mantra. It forces you to play a more strategic game because those with experience know that they can't just wait to attack when the statistics say they have the advantage.

    For Example using an online Risk Dice calculator http://diceroll.stritar.net/risk.html 100 v 100 the Attacker should win 81.65 percent of the time. And for a lot of the time this holds true. But the unpredictability of it, makes you play more strategy.

    As long as every player has to live with the same unpredictability I am good with the Dice not working perfect. Yes it makes for some frustrating games. But when starting a Nukes game and going 6 v 2 is not a simple 80% plus probability of taking that first tert, it makes you play more strategy.
    The whole game concept/dynamic is build around the random dices; in general attacker has one dice more and defender wins on a tie. If the "dice" won't be a random the whole game is broken. You should be able to determine your strategy based on the expected odds. For a people wanting something more unpredictable a new game option "totally unexpected" would be nice

  4. #34
    Level 5: Notable Commentator miquel is on a distinguished road miquel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sebrim View Post
    Hi miquel! What you found, if I remember right, was a visualisation of what the statistics tracker in MajCom might look like in the future, and the poster obviously mistook the dice average for his example numbers, so that doesn't prove anything at all
    Hi Sebrim! If I remember correctly exactly same "visualization" was introduced earlier by Badorties and that was gathered from the actual rolls. Also then there were discussion about incorrect average values...and that discussion died to a total silence from site admins.

    Disclaimer: what I wrote is purely based on my poor memory and I'm too lazy to search the forums to check the facts

  5. #35
    Level 5: Notable Commentator miquel is on a distinguished road miquel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EasyToKill View Post
    Well, I was on a march through some 1s, lost 8 to take 1, lost 1 to take the next one, lost EIGHT MORE to take the next one. Seriously????? Isn't that supposed to be a 1-in-some really huge number probability to happen even once?
    It isn't a really huge number...but big anyway. Don't have energy to calculate the exact value. In any case according to odds you should win 6vs1 99 times of 100 tries...so that is something that REALLY SHOULD NOT happen twice in a same turn!

  6. #36
    Level 6: Prominent Opinion haWD96lz is on a distinguished road haWD96lz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EasyToKill View Post
    Well, I was on a march through some 1s, lost 8 to take 1, lost 1 to take the next one, lost EIGHT MORE to take the next one. Seriously????? Isn't that supposed to be a 1-in-some really huge number probability to happen even once?
    That's 1 in single millions probability to get that or something worse. I'm not going to calculate the exact numbers. Very rare, but not crazy talk. Think about it this way. If you play 100 games you might get 3-4 attacks like that per game. Then its only 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 20,000 that it might happen to you in one of those games. Then you can think of many other bad things that can happen, e.g. 3 v 2 bad odds, etc.

    So its rare and it sucks that it happened, but if you play enough something like that will happen. Every roll is unlikely, but having something bad like this happen at some point is inevitable.

  7. #37
    Level 6: Prominent Opinion engineerairborne is on a distinguished road engineerairborne's Avatar
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    8 v 1 is a probability of 99.82% of the attacker will win. It does not speak to how many the attacker may lose, since every attack is a 3 v 1 and the attackers probability for each role is only 65.97% for each 3 v 1 role. So it is not outside the probabilities for one in a while to lost a 8 v 1 depending on how often and how many games you play.

    Something that is always lost in all of this that none of us get to see unless we are playing a real time game, is how well the defending probabilities play out. A better chart to see would be some that shows the different 1v1, 2v2 ...... and what the average expected remaining attackers remaining would be.

  8. #38
    Level 11: Commanding General of Everything. Don't ask, just listen. I'm at 11. Bluebonnet commands your respect Bluebonnet commands your respect Bluebonnet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by engineerairborne View Post
    8 v 1 is a probability of 99.82% of the attacker will win. It does not speak to how many the attacker may lose, since every attack is a 3 v 1 and the attackers probability for each role is only 65.97% for each 3 v 1 role. So it is not outside the probabilities for one in a while to lost a 8 v 1 depending on how often and how many games you play.

    Something that is always lost in all of this that none of us get to see unless we are playing a real time game, is how well the defending probabilities play out. A better chart to see would be some that shows the different 1v1, 2v2 ...... and what the average expected remaining attackers remaining would be.
    this calculator shows the average remaining troops after an attack
    http://gamesbyemail.com/games/gambit/battleodds

  9. #39
    Level 11: Commanding General of Everything. Don't ask, just listen. I'm at 11. Bluebonnet commands your respect Bluebonnet commands your respect Bluebonnet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by miquel View Post
    I remember that there were some post about the dice statistic... did some searching and found this:
    https://www.majorcommand.com/forums/...3&d=1490411358

    This clearly shows that there is some real problem with the dice! I did some trials with Matlab randi function constrained to have uniform distribution within the dice range. All the trials having 1000 rolls ended having having average of ~3.5 (which it should be). In the image the average of 5000 rolls is 3.00 => BAD!
    This image is not a true representation of the dice here. I tracked over 300 attacks this weekend. 1 attack being considered 1 roll of all dice. The average is around 3.5 + or - for each column i am tracking. I created a random number generator in excel to compare and the results are similar.

    So far blitz is better than attack. I expect it to average out in the long run.

    A long time ago I posted somewhere in here the results of an experiment from a college i think that was trying to find out how long it took dice to reach a true average. It took somewhere over 10,000 rolls. Which this link seems to agree with.
    https://books.google.com/books?id=9N...%2C000&f=false

    Right now I believe most people are overly optimistic on how quickly things average out. I dont plan on keeping track of 10,000 rolls. But maybe 1,000 or 2,000 to see if the stats on 3v2 2v2 2v1 are close.

    Procedure.
    1. Keep track of every single casual game roll for the next month or 2.
    2. Indicate game number, and if blitz or assault
    3. write down results as A1, A2, A3, D1, D2
    4. Indicate the number of troops won or lost

    Note: In maps where you can bombard, the results screen immediately dissapears since you can not advance troops from a bombardment at the end. So I assault only in those circumstances until enemy has 2 troops or less. Maps: Mars, 12 domains, nukes, duck and cover, etc.

  10. #40
    Level 11: Commanding General of Everything. Don't ask, just listen. I'm at 11. Sebrim commands your respect Sebrim commands your respect Sebrim's Avatar
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    Hi, da Hoe! What's with that namechange? Is it also a gamechanger?

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