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Thread: Fix the dice!

  1. #21
    Level 4: Recognized Voice BlueVelvet knows their way around BlueVelvet's Avatar
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    The clip is very good. I have had amazing dice on some maps and won clearly and also lost 40 troops over 4 consecutive turns and not won a teritory on another map. It is infuriating at the them time but when I accept that the I am moving up the leader board I must be doing something right. What I also accept is that pure randomness is not possible with a RNG.

    What is constant is the fact that the algorithm used on the site is the same for everyone.

    What is not constant is the amount of troops people attack with or against which affects how many dice are involved in the attack or defence.

    The attacker has a slight advantage when rolling:

    4 or more Troops vs 2 or more Troops (Three dice against Two dice)
    4 or more Troops vs 1 Troop (Three dice against One die)
    3 or more Troops vs 1 Troop (Two dice against One die)
    Otherwise, the defender has an advantage when the attacker rolls:

    3 Troops vs 2 Troops (Two dice against Two dice)
    2 Troops vs 2 Troops (One dice against Two dice)
    2 Troops vs 1 Troops (One dice against One dice)

    When player 1 sets up their strategy and it is blown by someone that has a streak of luck, player 1 feels let down as they feel they should have won as they had a strategy and player 2 was relying on luck to break the strategy. I would argue that player 1 using a a good strategy is likely to be a lot higher rank than player 2 and requires to win 2-3 more games to continue up the leader board or even remiain at the same rank.

    There are a lot of variables when considering why someone is not moving up the leaderboard compared to someone who is not winning games. I accept not moving up the leaderboard as I play any rank in real time including a lot of cadets. I understand that I have to win way more than I lose.

    I have a 2 Masters degrees and a Doctorate but that does not mean that I am a better player than anyone else on this site, it just means that I will likely employ a good strategy more often than not. If someone else employs a good strategy, then as far as I'm concerned the game is equal is interesting.

    What must also be remembered is people don't navigate to a risk site out of chance, even if they have never played on this site before they likely know already how the game is played. You cannot judge someone soley on their rank. The reason high ranking players remain high ranking players is down to the fact that I rarely see them in games meaning that to remain at the top as they play against each other a lot - why would they not do this if rank is important them?

    The fact that everyone faces the same algorithm when rolling the dice is the equilibrium that keeps me playing here. Players attitude's and manners on this site is another matter altogether.

  2. #22
    Level 1: Faint Background Noise elricsbiscuit is on a distinguished road elricsbiscuit's Avatar
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    You are correct DDrider-the dice are not truly random

  3. #23
    Level 5: Notable Commentator miquel is on a distinguished road miquel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueVelvet View Post

    ...

    The fact that everyone faces the same algorithm when rolling the dice is the equilibrium that keeps me playing here. Players attitude's and manners on this site is another matter altogether.
    That is a pretty hard statement...you know that as fact? In case of certain design/implementation flaws in the PRNG...as suspected in this case...the "algorithm" is not the "same" for everyone!

  4. #24
    Level 11: Commanding General of Everything. Don't ask, just listen. I'm at 11. Sebrim commands your respect Sebrim commands your respect Sebrim's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by miquel View Post
    That is a pretty hard statement...you know that as fact? In case of certain design/implementation flaws in the PRNG...as suspected in this case...the "algorithm" is not the "same" for everyone!
    What kind of implementation flaws make the algorithm different for certain players, and most importantly, for whom? Why should some people get 'better dice' than others, and how does this result from a flaw?

  5. #25
    Level 5: Notable Commentator miquel is on a distinguished road miquel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sebrim View Post
    What kind of implementation flaws make the algorithm different for certain players, and most importantly, for whom? Why should some people get 'better dice' than others, and how does this result from a flaw?
    Basically there could be several kind of seeding flaws that would make the same algorithm behave differently for individual players...but for whom...can't say, that depends how lucky you are.

    There has been discussion about seeding in different dice related thread and someone promised to "take a look" about it but that discussion died. Wiki page and other discussions highlight that this site uses Mersenne-Twister algorithm (which is really good but today there are better ones) which actually is really bad in terms of randomness if seeded incorrectly.

    I'm not saying that the PRNG here is incorrect or broken...but I can't say that it is working correctly either. What I'm saying that no-one expect the guys knowing the implementation details can't say anything as a FACT about it.

    Another aspect that I have been asking here is that how they are reducing the range of PRNG to the dice range. There are ways which provides uniform distribution (what it should be) and ways which does not (bad). No comments from anyone...

    Only thing that I'm pretty convinced (and I think that I'm not the only one) is that there are strange things happening with the dice much more often than they should happen according to the odds...which are by the way very well described in the Wiki pages.

  6. #26
    Level 11: Commanding General of Everything. Don't ask, just listen. I'm at 11. Sebrim commands your respect Sebrim commands your respect Sebrim's Avatar
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    I see... the dice randomness changes based on how lucky you are :-) Is it just me, or is that not the definition of randomness?

  7. #27
    Level 5: Notable Commentator miquel is on a distinguished road miquel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sebrim View Post
    I see... the dice randomness changes based on how lucky you are :-) Is it just me, or is that not the definition of randomness?
    It is not random! With PRNG it is pseudo-random at best case but with wrongly implemented/used PRNG it is not even pseudo-random.

    Like I said that I don't know the used method but let's assume that they have decided to have separate instance of PRNG for each player (each player has their own dedicated starting seed). In case of badly generated seeds some players could get "hot" or "cold" seed depending on the criteria and timing of seed creation...is this lucky or not? This is just one example scenario and all of these are speculative as long as someone explains the real implementation of the PRNG. Believe me, engineers/coders tend to think they have created unique/fancy/etc way to implement things...which turns out to be really bad way later on.

  8. #28
    Level 11: Commanding General of Everything. Don't ask, just listen. I'm at 11. Sebrim commands your respect Sebrim commands your respect Sebrim's Avatar
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    OK, I can agree with you there. If it is such that the PRNG does not treat each single dice roll as a singular, isolated event, but actually somehow links it with the person doing the roll, then it is certainly not random. I find it very hard to believe that the creators of an essentially free game site based on dice rolls would make such a blatant error as to not generate the random dice numbers completely separate from the game engine and the individual players. If I remember correctly, I once heard that the site doesn't even generate the randomness itself, but gets it from somewhere else, which would of course be the best way to ensure true randomness.

    Come to think of it, what is randomness then, if it is not that your results depend on luck? Pereceived random events in nature have so far always been proven to conform to some sort of pattern at some point of time (except the number Pi an so on), so how can one differentiate between randomness and pseudo-randomness at all?

  9. #29
    Level 5: Notable Commentator miquel is on a distinguished road miquel's Avatar
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    I remember that there were some post about the dice statistic... did some searching and found this:
    https://www.majorcommand.com/forums/...3&d=1490411358

    This clearly shows that there is some real problem with the dice! I did some trials with Matlab randi function constrained to have uniform distribution within the dice range. All the trials having 1000 rolls ended having having average of ~3.5 (which it should be). In the image the average of 5000 rolls is 3.00 => BAD!

  10. #30
    Level 1: Faint Background Noise EasyToKill is on a distinguished road EasyToKill's Avatar
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    Well, I was on a march through some 1s, lost 8 to take 1, lost 1 to take the next one, lost EIGHT MORE to take the next one. Seriously????? Isn't that supposed to be a 1-in-some really huge number probability to happen even once?

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