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  1. #1
    Level 1: Faint Background Noise DeadJester is on a distinguished road DeadJester's Avatar
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    Question about odds

    Maybe one of the smarter people on MC can explain something to me. I know that you have a nifty little page on the odds of the dice that you keep refering to every time someone brings up the dice, yet I see nothing of sorts when it comes to the set cards. Here below you can find my latest (last?) game against a player who ironically calls himself 'beginner'. 1 v 1 Classic map game, odds would be around fifty fifty right?

    https://www.majorcommand.com/games/390537/

    I'm absolutely no expert on odds, but it seems to me that my opponent is pretty lucky when it comes to dice and cards. The dice aside (I've never seen such good streaks and discussions on the topic are pretty useless on the forum), the cards are my most important point I wanted to discuss.

    So it seems that we've played for 19 rounds. Nine of which featured a set being turned in. 4 by me, 5 by my opponent, two of which back to back. Turns out that I had the high ground on most of my turn-ins, which is rather surprising since I find myself another 20 something points fewer than before.

    I guess this is going to end up into discussion on the bloody dice after all. How high are the f-ing odds that I turn in a set of reserves, yet lose everything within the next dice roll? Pretty high it would seem, considering my opponent did the same, yet always was able to climb back up, while I continued to fall down.

    Who knew that after all this time I would be able to see from round two that I would not win the games I play? I'm just trying to comprehend this, as I wonder if this game is worth all the time and effort, considering high-ranking members I play against always seem to have this edge.

    Turns out this game ain't about strategy at all, it's about the right cards at the right time, a time that comes rather easily for some than it does for others.

  2. #2
    Forum Moderator and All Knowing God. Cardinalsrule is a glorious beacon of light Cardinalsrule is a glorious beacon of light Cardinalsrule is a glorious beacon of light Cardinalsrule's Avatar
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    In escalate, that is often true. Getting a lucky 3-card set (or sometimes losing because you get 2 pair), the games frequently turn on the reserve cards. Conversely, on the very small maps (CMini, Duck, Mesopotamia) getting a quick 3-card set in a flat-rate game can win it for you.

    What you need to remember going in is, yes, there is strategy involved, but there is also luck. Dice luck, card luck, luck of the beginning drop, luck in getting first turn in 1v1, etc. If you have good strategy, you can sometimes overcome bad luck, but not all the time. Even the best at strategy lose because of the luck factor.

    So, you just do the best you can, and if you have good strategy, you'll win more than you lose.
    "And if you don't give up and don't give in, you may just be OK" ~ Mike and the Mechanics "The Living Years"

  3. #3
    Level 7: Distinguished Contributor namelochil is a glorious beacon of light namelochil is a glorious beacon of light namelochil is a glorious beacon of light namelochil's Avatar
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    That and double-clicking the blitz button...

  4. #4
    Level 0: Shadowy Lurker Rock73 is on a distinguished road Rock73's Avatar
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    Nine of which featured a set being turned in. 4 by me, 5 by my opponent, two of which back to back. Turns out that I had the high ground on most of my turn-ins, which is rather surprising since I find myself another 20 something points fewer than before.






    ------------------------------------
    gro egg

  5. #5
    Level 6: Prominent Opinion CaptSweatpants deserves your respect CaptSweatpants's Avatar
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    Has anyone posted the odds on reserves... like... what are the odds for a 3 or 4 card set..... ?
    Damn... lost another stripe

  6. #6
    Level 6: Prominent Opinion johnjdc is on a distinguished road johnjdc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptSweatpants View Post
    Has anyone posted the odds on reserves... like... what are the odds for a 3 or 4 card set..... ?
    The odds that you will get a set with your third card are 1 in 3 (you either have AA or AB, so you need either A or C - a 1 in 3 shot)
    The odds that you will get a set with your fourth card if you didn't already get one with your third are 2 in 3 (you have AAB so A or C would do it)
    The odds you will have to wait until your fifth card are a little under 1 in 4, by my maths.

  7. #7
    Make My Day... NewSheriffInTown commands your respect NewSheriffInTown commands your respect NewSheriffInTown's Avatar
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    I always thought the chance of a 3 card set was 1 in 3, or 33.3%
    and the chance of a 4 card set was 2 in 3, or 66.6%
    and of course, a 5 card set was 3 in 3, or 100%

  8. #8
    Level 6: Prominent Opinion johnjdc is on a distinguished road johnjdc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NewSheriffInTown View Post
    I always thought the chance of a 3 card set was 1 in 3, or 33.3%
    and the chance of a 4 card set was 2 in 3, or 66.6%
    and of course, a 5 card set was 3 in 3, or 100%
    I think the chance of a four card set is 66.6% if you don't already get a 3-card set, but since you can get a 3-card set, the odds of "getting a set on or before your fourth card" are more than 66.6%.

  9. #9
    Level 6: Prominent Opinion haWD96lz is on a distinguished road haWD96lz's Avatar
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    The odds are as follows:

    3 card set 33.3%
    exactly 4 card set 44.4% (2 in 3 chance to get a set and 2 in 3 chance to not have one on 3 cards) So 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9 = 44.4%
    3 or 4 card set 77.8 % (Add up numbers above)
    exactly 5 card set 22.2% (subtract number above from 100%)

  10. #10
    Forum Moderator and All Knowing God. Cardinalsrule is a glorious beacon of light Cardinalsrule is a glorious beacon of light Cardinalsrule is a glorious beacon of light Cardinalsrule's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NewSheriffInTown View Post
    I always thought the chance of a 3 card set was 1 in 3, or 33.3%
    and the chance of a 4 card set was 2 in 3, or 66.6%
    and of course, a 5 card set was 3 in 3, or 100%
    Well, it is. haW is adding in some extras. You are assuming the odds of getting a 4 card set without having a 3 card set, which is what most people think of. His odds include the odds of you already having a set with 3 cards. The odds he gave are completely correct, but IMO a bit irrelevant. No one cares what the odds are of getting a 4 card set once you have one with 3 cards...
    "And if you don't give up and don't give in, you may just be OK" ~ Mike and the Mechanics "The Living Years"

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